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COVID-19 Business and Health Implications
- Dangers associated with COVID-19
- Economic dangers include not only workplace shutdowns but also disruption of international supply chains due to force majeure.
- China has threatened to cut off supplies of medications (Buncombe, Andrew. 2020. "US and China in war of words as Beijing threatens to halt supply of medicine amid coronavirus crisis." The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-china-us-drugs-trump-rubio-china-virus-xinhua-hell-epidemic-a9400811.html) and the United States is also dependent on China for personal protective equipment (Keith Bradsher and Liz Alderman, 2020. "The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them." New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html). China threatened previously to curtail exports of the rare earths that go into electric vehicles and other products (Fredericks, Bob. 2019. "China threatens to limit rare earths exports in warning over trade war." New York Post, May 29 2019. https://nypost.com/2019/05/29/china-threatens-to-limit-rare-earths-exports-in-warning-over-trade-war/)
- The good news is that diligent compliance with the advice of the CDC, OSHA, and other authoritative sources should suppress the disease by summer if not sooner
- The SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model shows what happens if a disease's basic reproduction rate R0, the average number of people to whom an infected person will spread the illness, is reduced to less than 1. The infected population goes into a steady decline at that point. (Few if any "flatten the curve" online models address what happens if R0 falls below 1.) If however R0 is not reduced to less than 1, the infected population will reach a maximum before it begins to
- OSHA's "Guidance on Preparing Workplaces for COVID-19" can be downloaded from https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3990.pdf It is in the public domain as a publication of the U.S. Government. The webinar will provide an overview including classification of job-related risks as Very High, High, Medium, and Lower.
- Activities like grocery shopping are arguably Medium risk for customers and employees alike because they bring large numbers of people within six feet of one another
- Additional countermeasures
- The UK's Health and Safety Executive (their counterpart of OSHA) found that even improvised masks offer partial (roughly 50%) protection against contagion, while a good N95 respirator offers 99% protection (i.e. makes you 100 times less likely to get infected). Howard and Robinson, 2020. "Coronavirus face masks sell out as prices soar 800%: But do they really work and which one should you buy?" Daily Mail, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050587/Coronavirus-face-masks-selling-one-buy.html (Note however that improvised masks must be handled properly to avoid contagion, and must be disinfected between uses if reusable.)
- Reconsider the handshake as a greeting
- The health danger consists of the fact that the disease is highly contagious, there is no vaccine against it, and it is more lethal than the seasonal flu
- Consider making supermarket aisles one-way to reduce within-6-foot contacts. (Mazzoni, Alana. 2020. "Calls for Australian supermarket giants Coles, Aldi and Woolworths to enforce one-way aisles and limit the amount of shoppers in each store." Daily Mail, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8144395/Calls-Australian-supermarket-giants-Coles-Woolworths-create-one-way-aisles.html) Curbside pickup and home delivery also reduce the opportunities for contagion
- Installation of partitions between tables (this is being done in Hong Kong) reduces contagion risks in restaurants but does not eliminate it
- Supply Chain Implications
- American industrialists recognized the threat of cheap offshore labor more than 100 years ago—the preface to Frederick Winslow Taylor's Shop Management discusses it explicitly—and dealt with it by making jobs sufficiently productive that Americans can be paid high wages to do them. Force majeure disruption by COVID-19, and threats by China to withhold vital materials, is a strong incentive to reshore manufacturing capability
- Opportunities
- Traditional education costs are increased (as people who pay college tuition, and people who pay school property taxes, are well aware) by the capital and maintenance costs for classrooms. If distance education works, this is a strong argument for continuing it even when it is safe for people to gather again
- The technology for virtual tourism already exists, and allows participation by far more people at a much lower cost.
- Virtual conferencing eliminates travel and lodging costs for business organizations
Disclaimer; no part of this presentation constitutes formal engineering or occupational health and safety advice. Attendees are encouraged to refer to the authoritative sources cited such as OSHA for guidance on how to protect employees in the workplace.
Overview of the webinar
The coronavirus outbreak has caused enormous disruption around the world, and has major health and economic implications for almost every business. Logistics disruptions have exposed vulnerabilities in complex international supply chains and, even worse, China has threatened to intentionally cut off supplies of critical items such as rare earths and medications.
The good news is however that, if everybody follows the directions of the CDC, OSHA, and other authoritative sources, coronavirus will be a still-dangerous but manageable nuisance by summer. This is because countermeasures such as hygiene, social distancing, testing and quarantine, personal protective equipment, and so on should reduce its basic reproduction number (R0) to less than 1 if they have not done so already. There will be no curve to flatten because the disease will go into a steady decline and take the seasonal flu (which is stopped by the same countermeasures) with it. OSHA's "Guidance on Preparing Workplaces for COVID-19" can be downloaded from https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3990.pdf for detailed actionable information for attendees' workplaces; the webinar will provide an executive summary overview.
The COVID-19 crisis has also introduced the need to re-think complex international supply chains that can be and have been interrupted by force majeure, and are now threatened by Chinese control of rare earths, pharmaceutical drugs and intermediates, and personal protective equipment.The good news is however that American industrialists such as Henry Ford addressed successfully the issue of low-cost offshore labor more than 100 years ago, and the same proven techniques are equally workable today. Organizations have meanwhile been forced to use distance education, virtual conferencing, and similar techniques that are often less expensive than on-site activities. If these remote methods prove themselves effective, there is really no reason to go back to the previous methods.
Who should attend?
All people in decision making positions with responsibility for reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak, including profit & loss, supply chain, and health and safety.
Why should you attend?
Attendees will learn the risks and opportunities associated with coronavirus for workplace and business planning purposes. Of particular interest is the likelihood that, if people comply diligently with the instructions from the CDC, OSHA, and similar authoritative sources, the disease is likely to be suppressed by summer (if not sooner) although precautions will still have to be taken to prevent a recurred outbreak. This means an economic turnaround can begin. The webinar will use the Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered (SIR) model to illustrate not only the principle of "flattening the curve," but also the possibility of breaking the curve by reducing the disease's basic reproduction number to less than 1.
Attendees will also gain an overview of OSHA's "Guidance on Preparing Workplaces for COVID-19" as well as other countermeasures that can be taken to protect individuals and groups from the virus. Something as simple as making supermarket aisles one-way (as proposed in Australia) reduces, for example, opportunities for transmission, and curbside pickup probably reduces them even more.
Attendees will also gain information with which to advocate for the reshoring of American manufacturing capability to ensure that vital supply chains cannot be disrupted by force majeure or willful malice, as threatened by China on multiple occasions. Opportunities to reduce costs through continuation of distance education and virtual conferencing even when these are no longer necessary to control the virus will also be discussed.
Faculty - Mr.William A. Levinson
William A. Levinson, P.E., is the principal of Levinson Productivity Systems, P.C. He is an ASQ Fellow, Certified Quality Engineer, Quality Auditor, Quality Manager, Reliability Engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt. He is also the author of several books on quality, productivity and management, of which the most recent is The Expanded and Annotated My Life and Work: Henry Ford's Universal Code for World-Class Success.